Upcoming Games — Home Run Probability

Est. HR Probability is our best real estimate of P(this batter homers in this game): it starts from a Monte Carlo simulation of the batter's real historical contact resembling their power profile against real park geometry and forecast weather, then discounts that by the batter's own real ball-in-play rate and real plate-appearances-per-game — both measured over the same historical window, not assumed. Contact HR Probability (shown smaller, to the right) is that same simulation before the discount: P(clears the wall | contact happens at all) — useful context, but on its own it does not account for how often a batter actually puts a ball in play in a game, which is why it can look higher than the real thing. Empirical HR Rate is a completely independent cross-check with no physics simulation at all: this batter's, the opposing pitcher's, and this park's own real historical HR rates, blended toward the real league rate in proportion to how much real data backs each one up. It's shown for comparison, not combined into the other two. A badge next to a batter's name compares their real standing on both numbers within today's slate (top quartile = "high"): Strong means both agree, Opportunity means the edge leans on contact frequency more than raw power, Power means the reverse — strong contact quality but fewer expected chances. No badge means neither stood out. Rosters and probable starting pitchers come from MLB's live schedule/roster data.

Showing games from Aug 9, 2026 2:38 PM onward.